Understanding probability is vital to design wargames rules,
and it can also be a useful asset for developing tactics. (For example
a careful analysis of the odds when picking from an army list may well reveal which is the best value
troop type for their points). Wherever possible I have used the correct
mathematical term, but my memory of statistics is a little rusty.
A probability is defined as: 'A number expressing the likelihood
that a specific event will occur, expressed as the ratio of the number
of actual occurrences to the number of possible occurrences.'
Writing down probabilities
These are best expressed as a number between 0 and 1, with 0 being something
that will never happen and 1 being something that definitely will. This
format allows you to easily combine successive events to arrive at overall
probabilities. I prefer a decimal format although fractions can also
be used. Probabilities are also often expressed as a percentage and
to calculate this you can multiply a number on the 0 to 1 scale by 100,
thereby giving a number between 0 and 100.
The notation used in this section is: * for multiply, /
for divide. Fractions are written as 1/2 for half etc.